Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan Natural disasters are an increasingly phenomena that we all evidently observe and identify that may have a direct bang on the interests of an area where it hits and also on explicit domestic meters in such areas. Depending of where we live, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc, are intimidation to living, belongings, industrious assets, and also can have an impact on societal pointers. The increasing occurrence of natural disasters is extremely interrelated to the increasing susceptibility of homes and communities in emergent nations, as earlier socioeconomic vulnerabilities may aggravate the shock of a natural disaster, making harder the course of revitalization (Vatsa and Krimgold, 2000). Therefore, the impact of such events could consequence in an instant raise in poverty and deficiency (Carter et al, 2007). The literature has been still conflicting to a few amounts. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have discussed that the long-standing shock on development of natural disasters is depressing, at the same time as Skidmore and Toya (2002) explain that such tragedy may upbeat impact development in the long run as there is a decrease to returns on physical assets but a boost in human capital, leading to advanced development. Strobl (2008) for the US coastal areas discover that tornados reduce countys development originally by 0.8 per cent, whereas getting your str ength back after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a critical cyclone is a diminution of 0.8 percent of development (Strobl, 2008a). The impact of a natural disaster may also origin discriminations. The poor, who undergo from profits rise and fall, and also have imperfect access to monetary services, in the consequences of a disaster may be extra flat to lessen use and have a declining upset in other domestic indicators as a result. Additionally, there are a many non poor, or close to be, who are not insured in opposition to such threats, and then may plunge into scarcity as result of recapitalizing when dealing with with the upset, depending the shock and probability of diminishing into scarcity of the original stock assets and coping means. Furthermore, susceptibility to natural disasters is a multifaceted issue, as it is strong-minded by the financial structure, the phase of growth, prevailing of communal and fiscal conditions, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and concentration of catastrophes, etc. The impact on deprived ones could be losing contact with a few vital services, reversals in accretion of corporeal and human funds, and possibly an augment in child employment and unlawful behavior. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the pretentious agents in natural disasters. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can be acquainted with the need for peripheral support and which may be more efficient; second, definite sections of affected can be acknowledged, e.g. how low income families are affected; and third, it may be also practical for setting up assistance for natural disasters and the latent results. Overall, growing literature has emerged over the last few years on the macroeconomic and development impacts of natural disasters. Amusingly, there is as up till now no harmony on whether disasters are significant from a macroeconomic point of view, and two situations can be identified. The first believes natural disasters a hinder for economic development and is well symbolized by the following reference: It has been argued that although individuals are risk-averse, governments should take a risk-neutral stance. The reality of developing countries suggests otherwise. Government decisions should be based on the opportunity costs to society of the resources invested in the project and on the loss of economic assets, functions and products. In view of the responsibility vested in the public sector for the administration of scarce resources, and considering issues such as fiscal debt, trade balances, income distribution, and a wide range of other economic and social, and political concerns, governments should not act risk neutral (OAS, 1991). The other position sees disasters as entailing little growth implications and consider disasters and their reduction a problem of, but not for development (e.g. Albala-Bertrand, 1993, 2006; Caselli and Malhotra, 2004). These authors find natural disasters do not negatively affect GDP and if anything, GDP growth is improved (Albala-Bertrand, 1993: 207). This paper can be understood as an attempt at reconciling this body of literature. There are two entry points for the analysis. The first is to look at counterfactual vs. observed GDP, the second entry point is to assess disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets (human, produced, intangible), and, importantly vulnerability. Overall, the evidence reveals adverse macroeconomic consequences of disasters on GDP. In a medium-term analysis, natural disasters on average seem to lead to negative effects on GDP. The negative effects may be small, yet they can become more pronounced depending on the size of the shock. We tested a large number of vulnerability predictors and found that higher aid rates as well as higher remittances lessen the adverse macroeconomic consequences, while capital stock loss is the most important predictor for the negative consequences. In July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its history The floods have affected 84 districts out of a total 121 districts in Pakistan, and more than 20 million people one-tenth of Pakistans population More than 1,700 men, women and children have lost their lives, and at least 1.8 million homes have been damaged or destroyed (UN 2010, p.1). In attacking poverty in developing countries, due considerations need to be paid to the vulnerability of households against natural disasters. Poor households are likely to suffer not only from low income and consumption on average but also from fluctuations of their welfare once such disasters occur. These households are vulnerable to a decline in their welfare level because they have limited ability to cope with shocks and also they are subject to substantial shocks, such as weather variability (Dercon, 2005; Fafchamps, 2003). This concern has led to an emerging literature on vulnerability measures in development economics (Ligon and Schechter, 2003; 2004; Kamanou and Morduch, 2005; Calvo and Dercon, 2005; Kurosaki 2006a). We broadly think people as vulnerable when (i) they cannot mitigate income volatility and (ii) their consumption expenditure is volatile over time (they lack reliable coping mechanisms). Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept. As an example of low-income countries subject to substantial vulnerability, this paper examines the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is located in South Asia, where more than 500million people or about 40% were estimated to live below the poverty line at the turn of the century (World Bank, 2001). Economic development in South Asia has been characterized by a moderate success in economic growth with a substantial failure in human development such as basic health, education and gender equality (Dr`eze and Sen, 1995). This characteristic is most apparent in Pakistan (World Bank, 2002). Although the overall economic growth rates were improved during the 2000s, poverty reduction was slower than expected. Using a two period panel dataset spanning three years from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), one of the four provinces comprising Pakistan, Kurosaki (2006a) and Kurosaki (2006b) show that rural households were indeed vulnerable to substantial welfare fluctuations. Using a three-year pan el dataset from Pakistans Punjab, Kurosaki (1998) shows that farmers consumption was excessively sensitive to idiosyncratic shocks to their non-farm income. Similar findings have been accumulated for rural India as well (Townsend, 1994; Kurosaki 2001). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of disasters and locates the proposed analysis within the disaster risk management paradigm. In section 3, we present the data and methodology used for projecting the economic impacts for a medium term horizon (up to 5 years after an event), as well as the regression analysis used for identifying predictor variables explaining potential impacts. Section 4 ends with a discussion of possible implications of our analysis. Literature Review The literature on impacts of natural disasters and economic effects is still inadequate and can be separated generally into three different categories. One part of the literature has focused on how several factors intensify susceptibility to natural events. They have maintained a natural vulnerability framework in view of climate change, deforestation and geophysical factors (McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002), other than rising urbanization which brings ecological risks and exposure to threats from deficiency of sufficient urban development and dual political discourse (Pelling, 2003 and 2003a), or even environmental immediacy to exposure, access to property and public conveniences as well as political and social networks (Bosher, 2007). All these parts become a thread to population, their assets and possessions and their dynamic competence, becoming then an expected risk. And when such danger is realized, then it turns out to be a natural adversity (see McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002). Although this thread of the literature distinguishes that such risk factors influence the impact of the natural tragedy, they just briefly point out essentially the number of losses, or some irregular overheads. A second thread of the literature spotlights on the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic pointers. Auffret (2003) examined the impact of natural catastrophe on Latin America and the Caribbean, and figured out the impact very considerable, particularly for the Caribbean, where the explosive nature of expenditure is higher than in other parts of the world, where insufficient risk-management instruments have been available in the region. This part of the literature has been still conflicting to some extent. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have also explained that the lasting impact of natural events on economic development of any country is negative, while Skidmore and Toya (2002) reveal that such tragedies may also have a constructive impact in the future growth, resulting from a decrease to returns to physical assets but an enlargement in human capital. Strobl (2008) discovers for the US coastal counties that cyclones cut districts intensification at first by 0.8 per cent, at the same time as recuperating after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a unhelpful storm is a decline of 0.8 percent of fiscal increase (Strobl, 2008a). When investigating what extra features cut or amplify the impact of such natural tragedies on macro pointers, Kahn (2005) and Toya and Skidmore (2007) explain that organizations, top education and trade openness, in addition to well-built economic segment and smaller governments are significant aspects in shaping the impact that natural events have on growth at global level. The third tributary of the literature takes care of the impact and coping means for such tragic events generally at the domestic and township levels. At this point, natural adversities are upsets that family units have to face as they are unpleasant proceedings leading to a decline in earnings or utilization, and in addition a loss in industrious property. Alderman et al (2006) by means of data for family units in Zimbabwe spotlighted on height growth of kids as result of a deficiency and civil war in Zimbabwe, result that kids influenced by such upsets have less schooling and could have been tall; if not. Dercon (2004) focused on development in utilization amongst family units in chosen villages in Ethiopia, and did not discover that upsets have an effect in the diminution of assets. Carter et al (2007) examined the impact of droughts in Ethiopia and of cyclone Mitch in Honduras on development of belongings at the village level. For Ethiopia they uncover a model of assets leveling between low income family units, i.e. such families keep hold of their assets even they are little in phases where profits and usage drops off, for instance the big deficiency aroused. They discover for Honduran families that comparatively well-off families recovered earlier from the upset than short income households, and that a poverty corner is put below a specified point of income. Baez and Santos (2007) also examined the sound effects of Mitch on households pointers, discovering no outcome on school admissions of kids, but a noteworthy add to their labor contribution. Others have investigated how some coping methods inside families have an effect on revival from a shock resulting from such an adversity. De Janvry et al (2006) explains that uncertain cash transfer accessibility before a disaster provide as a shelter for those who are affected, while those dependent and helpless people utilize as coping method an add to child labor, and savings in food and school expenses. Alpizar (2007) also discovers that access to proper economic services takes the edge off pessimistic outcomes from natural disaster upsets for farmers in El Salvador, as it leads to further proficient production. On the other hand, a less urbanized region is the impact at local level. Yamano et al (2007) explain about industries and production. These writers makes use of region-wise data for employment and production, guessing that financial fatalities are not in proportion to the sharing of manufacturing activities and people attention, signifying that strategies to improve losses should be measured from a top order. Burrus et al (2002) also examined how low intensity typhoons can shock local financial systems from side to side interruption of actions. They exercise statistics from the local Chambers of Commerce surveys and as a result of their regularity the bang could be a decrease between 0.8 and 1.23 per cent of yearly production and up to 1.6 per cent of local employment. Though, there is a slit in the study of how local communal indicators are exaggerated by natural events. This is significant to bring to the front as the effects give the impression of being stretch around all unlike points, macro, micro and local, and how strategies to deal with those upsets can be premeditated in a good way. Whereas families emerge as the natural component of investigation for researching the consequences of natural disasters, it can also seem right to balance the study up as families react to risks are frequently influenced by the broader strategy framework. Certainly, households have substantial and insubstantial assets at their clearance, and their capability to preserve or gather together such assets in such situations will be produced by the arrangements and procedures for instance governance and institutional planning, broader strategies and open circumstances at metropolitan and district level. Additionally, the experience of family units to danger loss can and has been conventionally balanced up to top levels of aggregation (UNDP, 2008). It is the number of citizens situated in definite parts joint with the individual, material and ecological conditions of families and the regions where they live that forms their communal potential to deal with a natural disaster. For that reason, we refer to the community level of study while thinking of the inferences that dangers can have. Governments have a tendency to go on board in various approaches to deal with natural happenings. In the past, they have usually reacted through disaster relief, but more lately there has been a propensity to highlight cash transfers as well. Even if both methods are adopted extra efficiency could be consummate by adopting danger diminution and improvement means that deal with the structural aspects which make families more uncovered to natural risks. Having system in position previous to the awareness of dangers is primary. At the macro level, premature warning systems and the public disaster-preparedness agenda look as if mostly significant, so as sufficient economic assets to promote revival, over and above tax inducements for households or public to take on mitigation procedures. Another type of protecting the value of material goods at the macro level could be through financial diversification. Increasing primary, secondary and tertiary sector activities along with spatial activities in the economy, can offer an open pool to multiply the risk of anguish danger losses, and extra prospects to amplify and steady profits. Equally, the concentration of financial and sector-wise activities would be reliable with condensed capability of families to administer and react to natural disasters. Still, there is a set of insubstantial facts which might improve the family hard work to get through the outcome of natural vulnerability on them, just as adverse socio-economic opportunities. The political economy and organizational aspects of the situation where assets are positioned together with the system of belief, norm and ideas set in the activities of communities members might bear out elementary while utilizing and mobilizing assets for confronting disasters. If possible, one should be capable to clarify how civilization and supremacy provision come into play when they act together with the broader surroundings of risks, assets and wellbeing results. However, most of these features will be tough to get into work empirically for the period of our technical study. Flourishing coping against natural disasters is difficult to achieve in a situation of small efficiency, staled financial development, not having access to industrious possessions, deficiency of economic reserves and safety nets in place, and broad difference crossways geographic, financial, or tribal lines. Lack of health conveniences, remoteness and low rate of education may also complex these susceptibility. Consequently, the covariate life of various natural hazards and the policy-tempted macro circumstances upsetting the rate and likelihood of effectively coping with them might reflect unreliable welfare shocks across region and sub-region levels. At last, societies can make worse these natural, site and practice-specific aspects through not making any investment in substantial and communal infrastructure at the household and district level (roads and bridges). In case of rural areas, these deficiencies can be multifaceted by a high frequency of hazards because of being covered hazard-prone areas, extending the vulnerability of families to experience any losses. Although the impact a natural disaster is an outside factor, susceptibility of causes, making the shock of the event high or low, is not. Susceptibility to natural hazards is a composite subject, as it is determined by the monetary model, the phase of growth, current social and fiscal situation, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and greatness of hazards, etc. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the influenced agents in natural hazards. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can recognize the need for outside support and which may be extra effectual. Second, exact sections of affected can be recognized, e.g. how short income families are influenced, uniqueness of regions etc; and third, it may be also helpful for setting up backing for natural hazards and the possible penalty. They also summarize how the impact of natural hazards should consider other means. One of the main questions concerning the impact of natural hazards on families or towns is how accidental they may be. Donner (2007) examined the effects of hurricanes in the US and figured out that the effects are not accidental, because some aspects such as ecological, society, demographic, and scientific, have an occurrence on the impact of such events. On the whole the flow of impact of natural hazards can be sketched as in Figure 1. figure1.PNG Figure 1. Model of Disaster Impact Other aspect is how establishment have defined practices concerning natural events and how they systematize help in the outcome can also be determinant of the crash. Such as, Peacok and Girard (1997) explain how the revitalization process after tornado in Florida was determined more by governmental obstructions rather than lack of resources. Limited Literature is available which studies the quantitative relationship between the economy and the natural disasters. Zarrar et al (2009) studied the impact of natural disasters on the Irans Gross domestic product. They adopted a auto regressive distributed Lag model in order to study the impact. The findings showed that natural disasters have negative impact on the GDP per capita and on Per captia investment. The result of the model test was that investment had a positive impact on the economy while negative impact on GDP from the damages from the loss of Physical capital. Macro economic variables determine the impact of these natural disasters on the long run economic growth. Aaron (2007) found that financial crises caused by these disasters hurt the long run growth through inflation. This inflation is the result of increased debt burden. Other reason for this inflation could be that central bank print excess notes to pay the external and internal debt. Also the tax collection is also affected which hurdles the government efforts in compensating the losses. However the loss in revenue is compensated by the help of the Loans and aid given by the international institutions. They include the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union. These loans and aid influence the economic growth in the short as well as the in the long run. Pelling (2002) in his work identified that the most important macroeconomic impact of natural disaster can be studied by examining the inflation trends in the economy. More over the public expenditures by the government and the aid flowing as foreign direct investment influences the GDP growth rate. The used a comparative analysis technique of comparing different case studies to determine the macro-economic effects. These effects are measured by plotting the trends in GDP against macro economic factors i.e Inflation ,FDI and Loans. The literature review discusses the direct and indirect impact of economic variables on the economy. However in this research work only the impact of macro economic variables is studied. From the support of Literature review the macro economic variables which can be used to measure the quantitative impact of natural disasters on the GDP growth of Pakistan are Inflation, Internal and external debts, Foreign Aid and foreign direct investment flowing in the country. In next section of research we will take into account the above macroeconomic variables with the purpose of concluding the impact of natural disasters on the economy of Pakistan. Methodology Research Type In order to identify the macroeconomic effects of disasters, we suggest comparing a counterfactual situation ex-post to the observed state of the system ex-post. This involves assessing the potential trajectory (projected unaffected economy without disaster) versus the observed state of the economy. This contrasts with observing economic performance post-event and actual performance pre-event, as usually done in similar analysis. Our analysis requires projecting economic development into a future without an event. In short, the type of research would be purely Quantitative. Sources of Data Our two main sources of Data are: The open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. The proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database. Data type and Research Periods Our sample consists of all major natural disaster events during 1950-2010. The sample is based on information from two databases and was compiled by Okuyama (2009) with the threshold for a large event defined arbitrarily to a loss exceeding 1 percent of GDP.One database is the open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. Primary data are compiled for various purposes, such as informing relief and reconstruction requirements internationally or nationally, and data are generally collected from various sources and, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The other database is the proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database, which mainly serves to inform insurance and reinsurance pricing. We focus on the monetary losses. In both datasets, loss data follow no uniform definition and are collected for different purposes such as assessing donor needs for relief and reconstruction, assessing potential impacts on economic aggregates and defining insurance losses. We distinguish between sudden and slow onset events. Key sudden-onset events are extreme geotectonic events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, slow mass movements) and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and winter storms. Slow-onset natural disasters are either of a periodically recurrent or permanent nature; these are droughts and desertification. We broadly associate the loss data with asset losses, i.e. damages to produced capital. This is a simplification, as indirect impacts, such as business interruption, may also be factored into the data. Yet, generally, at least for the sudden onset events, analysts generally equate the data with asset losses, and an indication that this assumption can be maintained is the fact that loss data are usually relatively quickly available after a catastrophe, which indicates that flow impacts emanating over months to years are usually not considered. Losses are compared to estimates of capital stock from Sanderson and Striessnig (2009), which estimated stocks using the perpetual inventory method based on Penn World table information on investments starting in 1900 and assuming annual growth and depreciation of 4 percent. Theoretical Framework and variables under consideration Theoretical Framework to be used in this essay to explain Economical Impacts on Pakistan due to Natural Disasters. Economical Impacts GDP Exposure Socioeconomic Susceptibility Direct Risks Produced Resources Environment Resources Human Resources Type of Hazard Physical Susceptibility Risk Management The literature on the monetary impacts explained can be associated with framework above. Independent Variables: Independent Determinants of such impacts and dangers can be renowned as: Hazard Variable: This variable is related to the type of Natural disaster/Hazard that jolts any part of Pakistan. Exposure: This variable deals with the geographical area and spatial scale of impact from the particular disaster. Economical Structure: This variable deals with the overall structure of the economy in the country and in particular region affected by the disaster (if needed). Development: This determinant deals with risks that might directly or indirectly affect the stage of the development of the country. Socioeconomic Environment: It is related to the current socioeconomic conditions in the country. Risk Management: This takes care of the availability of formal and informal mechanisms to share risks in a particular part of the country. The last four variables are related to economic susceptibility. Research Hypothesis H0: Natural Disasters do not have any significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. H1: Natural Disasters do have significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. Techniques We use autoregressive integrated moving average models, also called ARIMA (p,d,q) (Box and Jenkins, 1976) for forecasting GDP into the future after the disaster event. ARIMA modeling approaches are chosen because they are sufficiently general to handle virtually all empirically observed patterns and often used for GDP forecasting (see for example Abeysinghe and Rajaguru, 2004). While such a type of modeling may be criticized for its black box approach (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989), it here serves well due to the large number of projections to be made and the difficulty identifying suitable economic model approaches. The ARIMA process Recall, an autoregressive process of order AR (p) can be defined as x t = à Ã¢â‚¬  1x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 ++ à Ã¢â‚¬  px tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢p + ÃŽÂ µt A moving-average process of order MA (q) may be written as xt =ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 +ÃŽÂ ¸ 2ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 +à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦+ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q and an ARMA(p,q) process, with p autoregressive and q moving average terms can be defined to be xt =à Ã¢â‚¬  1xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++à Ã¢â‚¬   p xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ p +ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q Where à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ are parameters to be estimated and ÃŽÂ µ are white noise stochastic error terms. Now, let yt be a non-stationary series and define the first order regular difference of yt as Άyt = yt à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ytà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 or more generally using a back-shift operator denoted as Bk zt = ztà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢k yt B d yt Άd = (1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) An ARIMA (p,d,q) model can then be expressed as yt q B t B B d à Ã¢â‚¬   p ( )(1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) =ÃŽÂ ¸ ( )ÃŽÂ µ with B p à Ã¢â‚¬   p (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬  1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬   p and Bq ÃŽÂ ¸ q (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ q Data Analysis The Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is applied for determining the components of the ARIMA process; i.e. we test different ARIMA(p,d,q) models with p and q to be smaller or equal 4 (due to the limited amount of data) and estimate à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ using Maximum likelihood techniques and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as well as diagnostic checks to detect a suitable model. The data requirements were set thus that at least 5 observed data points are needed for projections into the future. This is the smallest number of observations which are needed to estimate ARIMA (4,1,4) models (however, the majority of the sample (greater 90 percent) has at least 10 data points). Furthermore, all models are tested to be stationary (usually d=1 suffices to assure a stationary process) and all series are demeaned. To include uncertainty in the projections, also 95 percent confidence forecasts were calculated and analyzed. Forecasts into the future are performed with the selected models and then compared to the observed variables. Increases or decreases of GDP in future years are measured as a percentage increase or decrease to baseline GDP (i.e., baseline =100) which is defined to be GDP a year before the disaster event. Furthermore, the differences between observed values and projected ones are calculated and called Diff(t), which indicates the percentage difference between the observed and projected value of GDP in year t. We focus on projections with a medium term perspective (up to 5 years into the future). This limitation is due to important data constraints for the ARIMA models within

In Time Movie Review

In Time Movie Review In Time starring Justin Timberlake as Will Salas, is what I believe to be an eye-catching action thriller with every right to be on your must watch list. Breaking onto the scene just as the occupy wall street movement began to gain traction on October 28th 2011. Director Andrew Nicoll, did a fantastic job in displaying what can happen to society when the rich become driven by greed. This film was produced by Regency Enterprises and initially released in theaters. Although, it can be now viewed through everybodys favourite streaming platform Netflix. In Time finds itself to be extremely unique, separating itself from other action thrillers. People are free to live carelessly until they reach twenty-five and thats when their clock starts ticking. This is when you are given one more year to live and when that time hits zero, you time out. This results in people having to hustle or face death evident by Will saying You dont generally sleep in.. when questioned, how do people survive like this. The film is portraying Will Salas a man living day to day on his remaining time. Somehow finding himself in the possession of centuries and accused of murdering the man who gave him the time. He left him a final note reading Dont waste my time shortly before timing out himself. Leading to Will going onto finding himself falling in love with Olivia. A foil of himself rich, with time beyond his wildest dreams, edgy and against her father. Furthermore, going onto robbing time for the poor acting as a robin hood figure and escaping the timekeeper. As an action thriller movie, I was very impressed in comparison to other films that fall into the same category such as Furious Seven and Mad Max: Fury Road. In Time was not lacking in the creativity department of the plot. It was not simply a high budget movie set out to grab money. The story had depth and layers, moving from one objective to another. Unlike Mad Max: Fury Road which just focused on an escape and traveling with fuel with minor irrelevant details, coming off as a bit all over the place. In addition, Furious Seven which also has a messy plot comes off worse as a cash cow series. With simply no substance and just explosions with lack luster sound effects to tag along. This truly unique piece, does a great job of setting itself from other films within the same genre of action and thriller. I personally, am yet to see a more creative film well executed. It did a fantastic job in tying in some realism and science fiction. In what society could possibly get too at the point of over population and the rich wanting poor people to remain impoverished. I also believe the film had a very rich and satisfying production, featuring well edited settings whether it was in the corporate city, desert or the ghetto. Along with the soundtrack which added another sense to the film sometimes giving me goosebumps and not allowing my eyes leave the screen to see just what was about to happen. Furthermore, Craig Armstrong did an amazing job in the sound production truly triggering my emotions inside and anticipation for what was to happen. The only thing I wish this film included was more insight into how society got to the point of where time has taken the place of mon ey and how its ties directly with your life. I believe In Time to have included many themes such as one being time is money. Which can be taken in the literal sense of this movie because time acts as a currency and is a crucial part of everyday life, running the world. Along with that, Henry Hamilton played by Matt Bomer say For a Few to be immortal many must die this is relevant in this film since the rich only get richer and live forever, while the less fortunate wither away and struggle day to day. The themes in this movie are quite sad and can get the viewer really conflicted thinking about todays world and why some that can afford to give hoard. In conclusion, I believe this film is a must watch for any thriller fans. The balanced cast including Justin Timberlake, Olivia Wilde and Matt Bomer made for a great addition. Along with, the great use of a unique plot and great special effects. The use of imagery and themes also really gets the viewer thinking really making this film a must to any movie lover and person with an open mind.

A Mythical Analysis Of A Yaqui Way Of Knowledge :: essays research papers fc

A Mythical Analysis of A Yaqui Way of Knowledge In the summer of 1960 a UCLA anthropology student traveled to the southwest to do research on medicinal plants. While at a bus station, he met an extraordinary man. His name was don Juan Mateus, but I will refer to him as don Juan. Don Juan, a Yaqui "brujo" or shaman, decides to teach Carlos the "Yaqui way of knowledge." It is not known if these stories are fiction or non- fiction and many critics still debate over his writings. I interpret his books as modern mythological stories for several reasons. The "Heroic Journey Archetype" and shamanistic ideologies, and also the general moral, explainative, and philosophical content of his writings indicate that these stories can be viewed as "modern myth". Throughout Casteneda's stories you can see the "Heroic Journey Archetype". Carlos goes through a restless stage and breaks ties with his studies and professors at school. He moves forward with the help of don Juan, whose shamanic wisdom enlightens and guides Carlos along his spiritual path. He also faces death many times in his quest to become a warrior. Finally, after many years, he "passes through". This mythological archetype is one of the main reasons I believe his stories are mythical in nature. There are also many shamanistic idealogies that run throughout his stories. Views of the natural world including plant life, animal life, and elements are all personified. Everything is embodied with spirit. Concepts of reality are altered through drug induced states. Mushrooms and peyote are mainly used in rituals that don Juan uses to teach Carlos his way of knowledge: Mescalito, the "spirit" of the peyote plant, indicated to don Juan that Carlos was the "chosen" one, the person to whom don Juan should pass on his knowledge(CLC,87). Don Juan speaks of many different spirits and separate realities. His teaching's gave an explanation to man's view of existence and his ignorance resulting from attachment to the material world. Mythological proof is also found in don Juan's teachings, which compare Indian folklore, mysticism, and philosophy. Don Juan explains that there are many different planes of reality and that a warrior must detach himself with the aid of an ally. Carlos's ally is "Mescalito" or the spirit of the peyote plant. Don Juan's ally is "the little smoke"; a mixture made from hallucinogenic mushrooms. He explains that all life is made up of controlled folly and attachment to the material world causes ignorance and blindness. A warrior must learn to "see" and an ally helps achieve these states of non-ordinary "seeing." Don Juan's teachings are closely related to Buddhist philosophy.

Charlemagne’s Will: Church, Empire, and Intellect :: Essays Papers

Charlemagne’s Will: Church, Empire, and Intellect â€Å"†¦and [I] shall first give an account of his deeds at home and abroad, then of his character and pursuits, and lastly of his administration and death, omitting nothing worth knowing or necessary to know.† – Einhard, The Life of Charlemagne Charlemagne—Charles, King of the Franks—obviously has a fan in Einhard. His powerful work, The Life of Charlemagne, details the king’s life from the building of his empire, through the education of his children, and culminating in his final living words: the division of his possessions and the instructions for the preservation of his kingdom. At first glance, the inclusion of Charlemagne’s will seems an odd choice to end an essay that demonstrates thoroughly the specifics of the great man’s life. After all, who needs to know which child gets his gold, and which archbishop he favored the most. Einhard reveals the ignorance in this assumption by doing just the opposite: using Charlemagne’s will as the final and most convincing illustration of the king’s life and character. Einhard divides his discussion of Charlemagne into three distinct sections, perhaps in imitation of the king’s will, which is also partitioned into the same three underlying themes: church, empire, and intellect. Throughout his essay, Einhard makes constant references to Charlemagne’s piety. He notes that the king â€Å"cherished with great fervor and devotion the principles of the Christian religion.† Charlemagne built the basilica at Aix-la-Chapelle, and â€Å"was a constant worshipper at this church.† (Einhard, 48)†¦. He embodied the Christian doctrine to give to the poor, and had close relationships to the popes in Rome. A pessimist might find reason to believe these actions were purely opportunistic or at least had mixed motives—his relationships with the Vatican were monetarily beneficial—but Einhard’s inclusion of Charlemagne’s will removes all doubt. â€Å"In this division he is especially desirous to provide†¦the largess of alms which Christians usually make.† (Einhard, 52). In death, Charlemagne gave much of his wealth to the Church via the archbishops of each city in his empire, and further stipulated tha t upon the death of one of them, a portion of the remaining inheritance should go directly to the poor, as should the profit of the sale of his library. Charlemagne’s Will: Church, Empire, and Intellect :: Essays Papers Charlemagne’s Will: Church, Empire, and Intellect â€Å"†¦and [I] shall first give an account of his deeds at home and abroad, then of his character and pursuits, and lastly of his administration and death, omitting nothing worth knowing or necessary to know.† – Einhard, The Life of Charlemagne Charlemagne—Charles, King of the Franks—obviously has a fan in Einhard. His powerful work, The Life of Charlemagne, details the king’s life from the building of his empire, through the education of his children, and culminating in his final living words: the division of his possessions and the instructions for the preservation of his kingdom. At first glance, the inclusion of Charlemagne’s will seems an odd choice to end an essay that demonstrates thoroughly the specifics of the great man’s life. After all, who needs to know which child gets his gold, and which archbishop he favored the most. Einhard reveals the ignorance in this assumption by doing just the opposite: using Charlemagne’s will as the final and most convincing illustration of the king’s life and character. Einhard divides his discussion of Charlemagne into three distinct sections, perhaps in imitation of the king’s will, which is also partitioned into the same three underlying themes: church, empire, and intellect. Throughout his essay, Einhard makes constant references to Charlemagne’s piety. He notes that the king â€Å"cherished with great fervor and devotion the principles of the Christian religion.† Charlemagne built the basilica at Aix-la-Chapelle, and â€Å"was a constant worshipper at this church.† (Einhard, 48)†¦. He embodied the Christian doctrine to give to the poor, and had close relationships to the popes in Rome. A pessimist might find reason to believe these actions were purely opportunistic or at least had mixed motives—his relationships with the Vatican were monetarily beneficial—but Einhard’s inclusion of Charlemagne’s will removes all doubt. â€Å"In this division he is especially desirous to provide†¦the largess of alms which Christians usually make.† (Einhard, 52). In death, Charlemagne gave much of his wealth to the Church via the archbishops of each city in his empire, and further stipulated tha t upon the death of one of them, a portion of the remaining inheritance should go directly to the poor, as should the profit of the sale of his library.

Hernan Cortes - Reasons for Success :: American America History

Hernan Cortes - Reasons for Success Why was Cortes with 508 soldiers able to conquer the Aztec Empire with millions of people? Cortes was able to conquer the Aztecs for several very different reasons. In combination these reasons allowed him to have the upper hand in the conquest of Mexico. Arguably these reasons can be sorted into six different categories. The various causes for Cortes' success will be assessed in a climax pattern. To begin with the Aztecs had a harsh tribute system that was not popular among the people of Mexico. This cruel tribute system allowed Cortes to act as a liberator. Furthermore, with the Spanish brought several diseases into Mexico in witch they were immune to but the Aztecs were not. The spread of diseases such as small pox reduced the Aztec population and furthered Cortes' success unintentionally Also Marina was a tribal girl given as a gift to Cortes, she proved invaluable in translating local dialects in combination with Geronimo de Aguilar. Also an important aspect of his success was due to Montezuma's belief that Cortes was Quetzakoatl. A predominant reason for the Spanish success was due to their weaponry especially their armour and firepower. Perhaps the most important reason of all was that of Cortes' Indian allies such as the Tlaxcalans who made up the majority of his combined army. All these reasons worked together to allow Cortes, originally with 508 men to conquer the Aztec Empire of millions of people. To begin with, the Aztec's cruel tribute system allowed Cortes to act as a liberator. The process of human sacrifice was extremely common and was feared by the majority of the common people. The Aztecs as a nourishment for the Sun and all other gods needed human sacrifice. The Aztecs sacrificed between 10,000 and 50,000 victims per year. As the majority of those who were sacrificed were war captives who opposed the Aztecs, they obviously greatly feared the brutal tribute system. However not only war captives were sacrifices, common adults and children were also sacrificed at times. Cortes himself was disgusted at the thought of human sacrifice, this allowed him to gain Indian allies as well as gain respect among Mexican tribes that feared and opposed the Aztecs. The majority of the population feared the process therefore making Cortes, whom despised the process, an appealing alternative. Many followed Cortes as they shared the same views on the 'human sacrifice' topic.

Death of a Salesman by Arthur Miller Essay

After reading the play, I think that there are many feelings evoked towards Linda. There is pity and sympathy and some resentment at her denying Willy the chance to work in Alaska. She is a hard-working wife and loving mother. One could blame her for Willy’s suicide but this would be harsh, as she feels that she must go along with what Willy believes and not interfere. To begin with, there is her relationship with her sons. She loves them very much, and wants the best for them. When they come home she is obviously extremely pleased. She says: â€Å"It was so nice to see them shaving together, one behind the other, in the bathroom.† We can see that she is a caring and devoted mother when she defends Biff whilst Willy criticises him: Willy: â€Å"†¦But it’s more than ten years now and he has yet to make thirty-five dollars a week!† Linda: â€Å"He’s finding himself, Willy.† Willy: â€Å"Not finding yourself at the age of thirty-four is a disgrace!† Linda: â€Å"Shh!† Willy: â€Å"The trouble is he’s lazy, goddammit!† Linda: â€Å"Willy, please!† Her sons disappoint her, especially when they desert Willy at Frank’s Chop House where they were meant to be having dinner with him. She is angry with them, and shouts at them: â€Å"You invite him to dinner. He looks forward to it all day – and then you desert him there. There’s no stranger you’d do that to!† â€Å"Get out of here, both of you, and don’t come back!† â€Å"You’re a pair of animals! Not one, not another living soul would have the cruelty to walk out on that man in a restaurant.† Despite this, Biff and Happy love her very much and respect her. Biff refers to her as his â€Å"pal† and is upset to see her hair turning grey: Biff: â€Å"†¦Your hair got so grey.† Linda: â€Å"Oh, it’s been grey since you were in high school. I just stopped dyeing it, that’s all.† Biff: â€Å"Dye it again, will ya? I don’t want my pal looking old.† Happy also respects her and when he describes the kind of girl he would like to meet, he says: â€Å"†¦Somebody with character, with resistance! Like Mom, y’know?† He also says this of her: â€Å"What a woman! They broke the mould when they made her. You know that Biff?† Biff is also sensitive to the way Willy treats her, and stands up for her when Willy keeps silencing her: â€Å"Stop making excuses for him! He always, always wiped the floor with you. Never had an ounce of respect for you.† Linda: â€Å"Oliver always thought the highest of him†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Willy: â€Å"Will you let me talk?† Biff: â€Å"Don’t yell at her, Pop, will ya?† Willy: â€Å"I was talking, wasn’t I?† Biff: â€Å"I don’t like you yelling at her all the time, and I’m tellin’ you, that’s all.† Willy: â€Å"What’re you, takin’ over this house?† Linda: â€Å"Willy†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Willy: â€Å"Don’t take his side all the time, goddammit!† Biff: â€Å"Stop yelling at her!† Linda is also suffering from the financial state of the family, and is upset at her sons’ lack of support. â€Å"†¦Christmas-time, fifty dollars! To fix the hot water it cost ninety-seven fifty! For five weeks he’s been on straight commission, like a beginner an unknown!† She has succeeded in making her sons feel ashamed of themselves, which shows that she is a good mother who can still make her sons feel that they have let her down. I believe that this is a good quality. Biff says this about himself: â€Å"The scum of the earth, and you’re looking at him!† I also admire her confidence when she admits to the boys some of her fears: â€Å"†¦a terrible thing is happening to him. He’s not to be aloud to fall into his grave like an old dog. Attention, attention must be finally paid to such a person.† Linda, as we can see from the play loves Willy very much. She shares in his dreams, and is even too ashamed to remove a piece of rubber piping that he is using to commit suicide with. Despite this, she is thrilled when she sees it gone, though she later discovers that it was Biff who removed it. She is also too ashamed to admit to knowing that Willy is borrowing money from Charley, pretending that it’s his pay. â€Å"Willy, darling, you’re the handsomest man in the world†¦To me you are. The handsomest. â€Å"†¦because I love him. He’s the dearest man in the world to me, and I won’t have anyone making him feel unwanted and low and blue. You’ve got to make up your mind now, darling, there’s no leeway any more. Either he’s your father and you pay him that respect, or else you’re not to come here. I know he’s not easy to get along with – nobody knows that better than me – but†¦Ã¢â‚¬  She shows here her love for Willy, and her faithfulness, even though we know that Willy has been disloyal to her. She tells her children her fears, and that she believes that only they can help him. â€Å"Biff, I swear to God! Biff, his life is in your hands!† â€Å"†¦When he has to go to Charley and borrow fifty dollars a week and pretend that’s his pay? How long can that go on? How long?† She loves her husband so much, that she is too afraid to even talk about his contemplation of committing suicide. â€Å"I’m – I’m ashamed to. How can I mention it to him? Every day I go down and take away that little rubber pipe. But when he comes home, I put it back where it was. How can I insult him in that way?† Therefore we feel remorse for Linda, and much sympathy, as she doesn’t know what to do. We also feel sympathy for her, as we, as an audience, know that Willy is having an affair while he is away at Boston. It is the ultimate punishment for such a loyal and hard-working wife. Even as she mends her stockings, Willy feels guilt for what he has done, and says: â€Å"I won’t have you mending stockings in this house! Now throwx them out!† â€Å"Will you stop mending stockings? At least while I’m in the house. It gets me nervous. I can’t tell you. Please.† Biff almost lets on twice to Linda about The Woman in Boston. He says: â€Å"Because he’s a fake, and he doesn’t like anybody around who knows!† Linda: â€Å"It seems there’s a woman†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Biff: [sharply] â€Å"What woman?† Linda: [simultaneously] â€Å"†¦and this woman†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Linda: â€Å"What?† Biff: â€Å"Nothing. Go ahead.† Linda: â€Å"What did you say?† Linda does once deny Willy the chance to make a success of his career, when she refuses to let Willy go to Alaska to manage some timberland that Ben owns: Willy: â€Å"No wait! Linda, he’s got a proposition for me in Alaska.† Linda: â€Å"But you’ve got [to Ben] He’s got a beautiful job here.† Willy: â€Å"But in Alaska, kid, I could -â€Å" Linda: â€Å"You’re doing well, enough, Willy!† Ben: â€Å"Enough for what, my dear?† Linda: â€Å"Don’t say those things to him! Enough to be happy right here, right now. Why must everybody conquer the world? You’re well liked, and the boys love you, and someday – [to Ben] – why, old man Wagner told him just the other day that if he keeps it up he’ll be a member of the firm, didn’t he, Willy?† It would be unfair to judge Linda’s actions here, as it was early in their marriage, and she probably believed everything Willy told her about his achievements. We also feel pity for Linda when Willy keeps silencing her. He does this very often, but we can’t tell why. Willy: â€Å"†¦- don’t you pick it up. They have office boys for that.† Linda: â€Å"I’ll make a big breakfast†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Willy: â€Å"Will you let me finish? [to Biff] Tell him you were in the business in the West. Not farm work.† Biff: â€Å"All right, Dad.† Linda: â€Å"I think everything†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Willy [going right through her speech]: â€Å"And don’t undersell yourself. No less than fifteen thousand dollars.† Willy also gets annoyed with Linda when she buys him a new American type of cheese, one that he hasn’t tried: â€Å"I don’t want a change! I want Swiss cheese. Why am I always being contradicted?† Linda is also correct in her vision of the upbringing of their children, though Willy’s bad influences shadow it, and so the children never take any notice of her. We see her in Act one attempting to persuade Willy that it would be right for Biff to take the stolen football back: â€Å"And he’d better give back that football, Willy, it’s not nice.† According to Linda, Biff is â€Å"too rough with the girls† though Willy puts this down to the fact that â€Å"he’s got spirit, personality†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Despite the many hardships Linda has to face, we can see that she has a strong personality herself, and therefore we feel a lot of pity and sympathy for her at her husband’s funeral: â€Å"I can’t understand it. At this time especially. First time in thirty-five years we were just about free and clear. He only needed a little salary. He was even finished with the dentist.† Ultimately, the feelings evoked towards Linda in this play are sympathy, pity, and concern. There is also admiration felt for the woman who shared her husband’s dreams, and took in all the criticism that was hurled her way in a calm and somewhat melancholy manner.

History of Death Penalty in the Philippines Essay

The history of the death penalty was extensively discussed by the Supreme Court in People vs. Echegaray.[1] As early 1886, capital punishment had entered the Philippine legal system through the old Penal Code, which was a modified version of the Spanish Penal Code of 1870. The Revised Penal Code, which was enforced on 1 January 1932, provided for the death penalty in specified crimes under specific circumstances. Under the Revised Penal Code, death is the penalty for the crimes of treason, correspondence with the enemy during times of war, qualified piracy, parricide, murder, infanticide, kidnapping, rape with homicide or with the use of deadly weapon or by two or more persons resulting in insanity, robbery with homicide, and arson resulting in death. The list of capital offenses lengthened as the legislature responded to the emergencies of the times. In 1941, Commonwealth Act (C.A.) No. 616 added espionage to the list. In the 1950s, at the height of the Huk rebellion, the government enacted Republic Act (R.A.) No. 1700, otherwise known as the Anti-Subversion Law, which carried the death penalty for leaders of the rebellion. From 1971 to 1972, more capital offenses were created by more laws, among them, the Anti-Hijacking Law, the Dangerous Drugs Act, and the Anti-Carnapping Law. During martial law, Presidential Decree (P.D.) No. 1866 was enacted penalizing with death, among others, crimes involving homicide committed with an unlicensed firearm. In the aftermath of the 1986 revolution that dismantled the Marcos regime and led to the nullification of the 1973 Constitution, a new constitution was drafted and ratified. The 1987 Constitution provides in Article III, Section 19 (1) that: Excessive fines shall not be imposed, nor cruel, degrading or inhuman punishment inflicted. Neither shall death penalty be imposed, unless, for compelling reasons involving heinous crimes, the Congress hereafter provides for it. Any death penalty already imposed shall be reduced to reclusion perpetua. Congress passed Republic Act No. 7659 (entitled â€Å"An Act to Impose the Death Penalty on Certain Heinous Crimes, Amending for that Purpose the Revised Penal Code, as Amended, Other Special Penal Laws, and for Other Purposes†), which took effect on 31 December 1993. [edit] Illustrative cases As a result of the abolition of the death penalty, existing penalties for death were reduced to reclusion perpetua, within the possibility of parole. Here are illustrative cases: The case of People of the Philippines vs. Quiachon[3] involves an accused who raped his 8-year old daughter, a deaf-mute. Under Article 266-B of the Revised Penal Code, the imposable penalty should have been death. With the abolition of the Death Penalty, however, the penalty was reduced to reclusion perpetua, without the possibility of parole under the Indeterminate Sentence Law. The case of People of the Philippines vs. Santos[4] involves the rape of a 5-year old child. The accused was meted the penalty of death because rape committed against a ‘child below seven (7) years old’ is a dastardly and repulsive crime which merits no less than the imposition of capital punishment under Article 266-B of the Revised Penal Code. The sentence was also reduced to reclusion perpetua, without the possibility of parole. The case of People vs. Salome[5] involves a rape of a 13-year old girl (who got pregnant), committed in a dwelling and with the aid of a bladed weapon. The imposable penalty should have been death, but with the abolition of the Death Penalty, the Supreme Court reduced the penalty toreclusion perpetua, without the possibility of parole. The case of People of the Philippines vs. Tubongbanua[6] involves the murder of a victim who suffered 18 stab wounds which were all directed to her chest, heart and lungs. Considering the existence of the qualifying circumstance of evident premeditation and the aggravating circumstances of dwelling, and taking advantage of superior strength without any mitigating circumstance, the proper imposable penalty would have been death. However, with the abolition of the death penalty law, the penalty imposed was reclusion perpetua, without the possibility ofparole. http://phbar.org/wikilaw/index.php?title=Death_Penalty_Law (1) Excessive fines shall not be imposed, nor cruel, degrading or inhuman punishment inflicted. Neither shall death penalty be imposed, unless, for compelling reasons involving heinous crimes, the Congress hereafter provides for it. Any death penalty already imposed shall be reduced to reclusion perpetua. In mid-1987, a bill to seeking to reinstate the death penalty for 15 ‘heinous crimes’ including murder, rebellion and the import or sale of prohibited drugs was submitted in Congress. 1988 In 1988, the military started lobbying for the imposition of the death penalty. Then Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief General Fidel Ramos was prominent among those calling for the reintroduction of the death penalty for rebellion, murder and drug-trafficking. The military campaign for the restoration of the capital punishment was primarily against the CPP-NPA, whose offensives then included urban assassination campaigns. Anti-death penalty groups including Amnesty International opposed the bill, but the House of Representatives voted for restoration by 130 votes to 25. 1989 Three similar bills were put before the Senate. After a bloody 1989 coup, President Aquino certified as urgent one of these bills on the prompting of Ramos. The said bill again proposed death penalty for rebellion, as well as for sedition, subversion and insurrection. 1990 Ramos administration A series of high profile crimes during this period, including the murder of Eileen Sarmenta and Allan Gomez, created public impression that heinous crimes were on the rise. The Ramos administration succeeded in restoring death penalty. 1992 President Fidel Ramos during his first State of the Nation address declared that his administration would regard the restoration of the death penalty a legislative priority, and urged Congress to take speedy action. 1993 Republic Act No. 8177, which mandates that a death sentence shall be carried out through lethal injection, was approved on March 20, 1996. Estrada administration Seven death convicts were executed during the Estrada administration before he announced a moratorium on executions. 1999 Leo Echegaray, 38, was executed by lethal injection on February 5, 1999. He was the first to be executed after the Philippines restored death penalty. It was the Philippine’s first execution in 22 years. Six more men followed within the next 11 months. 2000 On March 24, 2000, Estrada imposed a de facto moratorium in observance of the Christian Jubilee Year. He also granted 108 Executive Clemencies to death convicts. On December 10, 2000, Human Rights Day, Estrada announced that he would commute sentences of all death convicts to life imprisonment. He expressed his desire to certify as urgent a bill seeking a repeal of the Death Penalty Law. Arroyo administration Please see Gloria Arroyo on death penalty–a timeline While the Arroyo administration has been characterized by a flip-flopping stand on death penalty, no death convict has been executed under her watch. Voting separately, the two Houses of Congress on June 6, 2006 repealed the death penalty law. Arroyo signed Republic Act 9346 on June 24, 2006. Section 1. The imposition of the penalty of death is hereby prohibited. Accordingly, Republic Act No. Eight Thousand One Hundred Seventy-Seven (R.A. No. 8177), otherwise known as the Act Designating Death by Lethal Injection is hereby repealed. Republic Act No. Seven Thousand Six Hundred Fifty-Nine (R.A. No. 7659), otherwise known as the Death Penalty Law, and all other laws, executive orders and decrees, insofar as they impose the death penalty are hereby repealed or amended accordingly. Sec. 2. In lieu of the death penalty, the following shall be imposed.(a) the penalty of reclusion perpetua, when the law violated makes use of the nomenclature of the penalties of the Revised Penal Code; or (b) the penalty of life imprisonment, when the law violated does not make use of the nomenclature of the penalties of the Revised Penal Code. Sec. 3. Person convicted of offenses punished with reclusion perpetua, or whose sentences will be reduced to reclusion perpetua, by reason of this Act, shall not be eligible for parole under Act No. 4180, otherwise known as the Indeterminate Sentence Law, as amended.